It is almost hard to believe that only six months ago, Zambia was in pain of climate-induced darkness, with load shedding extending up to 21 hours every day for some residents. But since December 2025, the darkness has lifted, as a combination of factors worked together to relieve the power supply imbalance.

For some, it may seem surreal and hard to believe that 21 hours of no power could suddenly turn into largely uninterrupted power, except for instances of faults, maintenance and the dreaded vandalism.

Skepticism is an understandable human reaction after 20 months of extensive power cuts, such that some citizens appear to be holding their breath, waiting for the moment their expectations of a return to load management will become a self-fulfilling prophesy. That narrative has been hovering in sub-tones but has now come to the surface after expert information filtered through warning of the likely return in 2026 of the dreaded El Nino – the same weather phenomenon responsible for the harshest drought Zambia has experienced, giving rise to the electricity generation shock and power supply crisis of 2024-2025.

For the conspiracy theorists, that preparedness information presents them with ripe fodder for fear-mongering speculation dressed as the gospel truth! Yet, the evidence on the ground tells a different story – a story of focused action taken during one of our country’s darkest moments, literally giving rise to a reality of resilience and rewriting Zambia’s future.

Zambia’s New Electricity Grid
At peak, Zambia needs anywhere from 2,400 megawatts (MW) of power to adequately accommodate everyone using electricity at the same time. It’s important to understand that during the just ended crisis, the country still had the capacity or ability to produce that much and even more electricity but did not have the raw material or input – the energy, mainly water because more than 80 per cent of our electricity is made from water (hydropower).

Being hit by the drought was more than an eye-opener. It galvanized the government to act beyond formulating policies that only ticked boxes and lay gathering dust. After aligning policy, law, and regulation, the government accelerated implementation – in partnership with the private sector, now enabled by laws such as the electricity open access and light-handed regulation that enabled capital to flow into the sector faster.

Faster decisions by the Energy Regulation Board meant projects moved faster in the development process to construction. Removing grid access rigidities and opening up the market meant that independent power traders and producers happily committed money to import power into the country to support ZESCO and to construct their projects on the back of buyers of their power other than the national utility: a win for everyone.

The Proof of the Pudding
A very famous target in 2025 was 1,000MW of solar power (commissioned and in development) in 12 months. To many, it was inconceivable and even laughable. A pie in the sky! The proof shows otherwise.

In June 2025, 100MW came online in Chisamba Phase 1, followed closely by 25MW Mailo Phase 1 in Serenje and right on their heels, construction of the second phases of those two projects followed – 100MW and 35MW respectively. CEC’s 60MW Itimpi Phase 1 was also commissioned.

Luapula followed, with the recently commissioned Mansa 50MW—14MW of which was fed into the grid from December last year. Chipata (100MW), Chadiza (2.5MW), Cooma (50MW), Northrise (40MW), and many others dotted the country’s landscape, surpassing the target. ZESCO alone accounts for 625MW of the target. Private sector projects came in strong, weighing in at more than 2,000MW while the Presidential Constituency Energy Initiative contributes 312MW. Altogether, the capacity of committed solar projects in development or construction and expected to be realized by the end of 2026 is 3,085MW. Thermal adds 1,255MW to the mix. This is not a wish list but actual, committed projects in development totaling about 45, with nearly 90% of them scheduled for commissioning in 2026 and the remainder in 2027. And that excludes hydropower projects.

This is what energy mix and resilience look like! Zambia is certainly breaking its dependence on rain. With this record, the trajectory to the envisioned 10,000MW by 2030 is more than attainable.
• Dec 2025: installed capacity 3,985MW — we are 40 per cent there
• Dec 2026: expected jump to 6,703MW; and
• Dec 2027: climbing to 7,588MW

Additionally, independent private traders continue to actively trade within the region, supporting our large industries with critical imports to keep the wheels of our economy running.

Added to this are the strides in regional transmission interconnectivity, which will further reinforce and support local generation and supply. Both the government and private sector are participating in the accelerated development of transnational electricity highways to enable not only imports to supplement sources within our borders, but also enabling export and trade, especially as we attain surplus capacity.

The Grid Will Hold
This is more than enough evidence that the grid will not break. El Nino is dreadful and undesirable but whether it comes now, in 2026, or any other time in the future, it will not affect our energy as it did in 2024 and 2025. A strong power position will enable industrial and commercial continuity, including agriculture because there will be enough electricity to enable irrigation. Residential and small business users will be equally be covered. There is no cause for panic or the fear-mongering conspiracy theories of returning to the dark, painful days of load shedding.