Introduction

A review of the past five years from 2021-2025, shows significant changes in Zambia’s mining industry policies. Various policy reforms were introduced that have seen the revival of the mining sector against the exponential growth in demand for critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, manganese and rare earths. Between 2022 and 2024, mining investment pledges in Zambia surpassed $7 billion. Copper production level rose from 763,287 MT in 2022 to 820,676 MT in 2024 and is projected to reach 1 MT in 2026 and 3 MT by 2031. Other minerals such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, have all registered impressive growth in output. This week’s article examines some of the key sector policy reforms and actions undertaken driving the process and possible future challenges.

What were the main actions and key Mining Sector Policy Reforms?

A major government milestone in 2024 was the resolution of long-standing legal disputes at Mopani and KCM, unlocking production and restoring investor confidence. Beyond this, several transformative reforms have reshaped Zambia’s mining landscape.

a) The National Critical Minerals Strategy (2024-2028)
This strategy is aimed at redefining Zambia’s approach to mineral development and value retention. Its key measures include:
a) Increased government participation in new projects in 2024 to acquire at least 30% ownership. This will certainly guarantee sovereign participation and provide industry oversight.
b) Launching of the 3 MT Copper Production Strategy by 2031 in August, 2024. Although ambitious, the continued power deficits and long lead times from brownfield projects, may hinder its attainment.
c) Promoting the diversification to other critical minerals such as cobalt, nickel, uranium, graphite and rare earths. Government is encouraged to develop specific strategies for each of these unique mineral commodities.
d) Promoting value addition. A significant increase in budgetary allocation from K595,000 in 2024 to K10.1 million in 2026 budget, is commendable. However, sustained budgetary allocations will be necessary since the evolution of value chains develop over time.
e) The 2025 reforms on artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) and creation of gold centres in Mumbwa, Rufunsa, and Mfumbwe mark progress toward curbing illegal trade
f) Addressing the lack of adequate geological information for effective management of mineral resources. A high-resolution geophysical country-wide survey was underway. An increase from K8.1 million in 2022 to K364 million in 2026 budget is expected to greatly improve data on geological resources of the country.
g) Local content regulation—Statutory Instrument No. 68 of 2025 promotes Zambian participation in supply chains; its success will depend on effective monitoring
h) New R&D incentives and technology hubs aim to foster local industrialisation.
b) The Mines and Minerals Regulations Commission (2024)
This was an institutional framework reform that superseded the Mines and Minerals Act of 2015 with the aim of improving service delivery by the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development.
c) The Geological Minerals Development Act, 2025
Meant to provide for the geological survey, mapping and exploration and to provide for the establishment of ASM Fund. The fund was successfully launched in 2025.
d) Fiscal and other incentives

Key fiscal measures include the reduction of corporate income tax from 35% to 30%, making mining royalties tax-deductible, extending loss carry-forward from 5 to 10 years, and maintaining 100% capital allowances and duty-free equipment imports to attract investment.

What are the challenges?

The sector’s main emerging challenge is the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation, which could transform or displace over 30% of mining jobs by 2028. Zambia remains behind in reskilling its workforce to adapt to AI-integrated operations, raising risks of job losses among local workers.

Mining expansion has also increased environmental hazards and workplace accidents, underscoring the need for stronger oversight by the newly established Mines and Minerals Regulation Commission (MRC). However, the current K75 million budget allocation for 2026 appears insufficient for such an expanding mandate.

Persistent national energy deficits further constrain productivity—evident when the First Quantum Enterprise nickel mine reduced output due to power shortages. Addressing these constraints will be crucial to sustaining sector growth

Conclusions

CTPD notes that ongoing policy measures have strong potential to improve mining sector performance—provided they are matched with adequate budgetary support and effective monitoring. However, concerns remain about the limited fiscal benefits from mining due to generous incentives extended to foreign companies. For example, Statutory Instrument No. 4 of 2025 suspended export taxes on precious minerals, while Statutory Instrument No. 47 of 2025 granted copper concentrate export exemptions. These measures risk eroding the country’s revenue base and should be carefully reassessed.

Moreover, Zambia’s limited industrial and technical capacity continues to constrain value addition efforts. Priority should be placed on implementing the Local Content Regulations effectively and on building capabilities to leverage emerging opportunities, particularly those linked to the Lobito Corridor.

About the Author

Dr. Stephens M Kambani is a Research Associate at CTPD, Lecturer, and Researcher at the University of Zambia, Department of Mining Engineering with a PhD in Mineral Economics Studies from Montana University, Austria and a Master of Engineering specializing in Mineral Economics from McGill University in Canada.