The week of February 23rd 2026,the Tobacco Control Bill moves to the committee stage for stakeholder review and consideration, under the auspice of the committee on health, community development and social services. The debate is sharpening. On one side stands a formidable public health consensus backed by decades of global evidence. On the other is a powerful industry whose commercial interests hung in a balance, threatened by regulation and have thus resorted to resounding of the false alarm—jobs will be lost, farmers will suffer, revenue will plummet, and illicit trade will explode. These claims demand scrutiny. When tested against credible data, a different picture emerges.

The Economic Cost of Tobacco: A Net Loss for Zambia
Industry arguments frame tobacco as an economic asset. The data suggests the opposite. Official statistics suggest that Tobacco use costs Zambia approximately ZMW 2.8 billion annually in healthcare expenditures and productivity losses. In stark contrast, the industry’s contribution to GDP has dwindled to just 0.30 percent as of 2022, a sharp decline from 1.56 percent in 2005. This figure is expected to reduce even further following fundamental shifts in rainfall patterns in recent years and farmers’ heavy reliance on rain fed crops, among others. The fundamental truth is this: tobacco’s costs, burdened health systems, lost productivity, and premature mortality far outweigh its diminishing economic contribution.

The Jobs Argument: A Precarious Livelihood
The claim that the Bill will destroy livelihoods requires honest examination. Yes, the industry supports jobs, but their quality is deeply questionable. Despite industry promises, most smallholder farmers remain trapped in a cycle of debt, earning minimal income once labour, input costs, and loan deductions are factored in. The system is designed to keep farmers perpetually indebted to leaf-buying companies. This is further exacerbated by the significant health risks resulting from sustained tobacco exposure to farmers and the accompanying environmental destruction, both of which directly contribute to livelihood disruption. To illustrate, tobacco curing demands vast quantities of wood. In Eastern Province’s Chipangali area, the destruction has been so extensive that there is literally no single tree left standing in many communities, a stark testament to decades of tobacco farming.

Tax Revenue and Fiscal Policy: A Self-Defeating Incentive
The tax revenue argument collapses under scrutiny. A 75 percent excise tax exemption for locally manufactured cigarettes, introduced with no sunset clause, has cost Zambia an estimated 1.6 billion kwacha in lost revenue between 2016 and 2022 alone. This foregone revenue, which could have funded healthcare and education, instead stagnated government income while making cigarettes more affordable.

The Illicit Trade Red Herring
The claim that regulation fuels illicit trade is used globally to intimidate policymakers. The evidence in Zambia directly refutes it. Studies show illicit cigarette prevalence in Zambia is relatively low at 12.2 percent, placing the country well below South Africa (54 percent) and Ethiopia (45 percent). Weak oversight, not strong regulation, enables illicit markets. The Bill’s licensing and traceability provisions will strengthen enforcement.

Industry Interference: A Global Problem, A Zambian Reality
Recent events confirm this pattern. The tobacco industry has lobbied vigorously to delay the Bill, reduce the size of graphic health warnings, and remove restrictions on flavored products. This is the same industry whose headquarters are in countries where similar and often stricter regulations have long been in place. This lobbying is precisely the kind of interference the Bill seeks to make transparent and accountable.

The Bill’s protections against industry interference respond to documented behaviour. The Africa Tobacco Industry Interference Index 2025 reveals a troubling reality: Zambia is among countries with the highest levels of tobacco industry interference on the continent scoring poorly across all indicators, reflecting unnecessary government-industry interactions and lack of transparency.

The industry has lobbied to delay the Bill, reduce health warnings, and protect flavored products, the same interference the Bill seeks to make accountable.

A Generational Decision
The evidence is overwhelming. Tobacco is a net economic drain, costing billions while contributing minimally to GDP. A single tax incentive cost the treasury 1.6 billion kwacha. Illicit trade is low compared to neighbours. Farmers in Chipangali are proving alternative livelihoods work. And Zambia ranks among Africa’s worst for industry interference.
This Bill is not an assault on liberty. It is liberation from addiction, from preventable disease, from an industry that profits from death, from a system keeping farmers in debt, and from policy captured by commercial interests. The line has been drawn. The question for every well-meaning Zambian, every conscientious lawmaker, is simple: on which side will you stand? The evidence could not be clearer. Support the Tobacco Control Bill. Choose health. Choose our children’s future. Choose Zambia. Enact the Tobacco Control bill.

About the Authors
Natalie Mwila is a development economist specializing in public policy, advocacy and economic research. She serves as the Head of Advocacy and Policy at the Centre for Trade Policy and Development. She holds a bachelor’s degree in development studies from the University of Zambia and a master’s degree in economics and finance. She is currently studying a second master’s degree in data literacy at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, as a commonwealth scholar, with additional studies in sustainable development and the law at the University of Cambridge.

Robert Mwale serves as the Lead Public Finance Researcher at the Centre for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD). He also serves as the coordinator for both the Zambia Civil Society Organization Debt Alliance (CSODA) and the Zambia Tax Platform (ZTP).
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Zambia (UNZA), a Master of Science in Economics from the Copperbelt University, and a Master of Science in Financial Services from ZCAS University. In addition, he possesses qualifications and competence in the Investment Advisor and Stockbrokers Course