No, Zambia won’t produce 3 million tons of Copper annually by 2031

The latest Zambian Copper production figures for Q1 in 2026 shows a small decline of 4.3%, coming in at 208,993 tons compared to Q1 2025. In 2025, 890,346 tons were produced against a target of 1,000,000 tons, which means production was 12% short.

The government position as stated in endless speeches and by the Presidential Delivery Unit (PDU) on its official government website says Zambia is on a path to “increasing copper production to 3 million metric tonnes per annum by 2031” which is 6 years counting from 2026.

I have long argued that this is unrealistic for many structural reasons I will not go into as that is a discussion for another day. A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation says that to move from 890,346 tons in 2025 and get to 3,000,000 tons by end of 2031 means a sustained average annual growth rate of 23 per cent! ie

If we assume the 23% growth target to reach 1,095,126 tons for 2026 is split equally in the 4 quarters, it means Q1 for 2026 was supposed to produce 273,782 tons instead of 208,993 tons. This is a shortfall of 31% already! This needs to be made up in the final 3 quarters of 2026 which means the growth needs to be even higher than 23%. If we go back to 2025 which was supposed to produce a million tons, the shortfall up to this point in time is even worse.

So what are the odds that Zambia will magically grow its Copper production by a crazy growth rate of 23% every single year from 2026 until 2031 and hit 3 million tons? This was something that never happened even during the Levy Mwanawasa and Rupiah Banda boom years. And this huge growth in output is expected after missing the 2025 target and Q1 for 2026 suffering a decline compared to a year ago.

The most interesting part of this matter is that the 3 million tons target has been thrown around willy-nilly for the last 4 years and even put into official government documents. In 2022 when the pronouncements were first codified, Copper production was 763,550 tons. So from that year to 2025, the increase to 890,346 tons has been SIXTEEN PER CENT. Not 60%, but 16% in 3 years. If Zambian Copper production had been growing at a more realistic 16% every year since 2023, it would have hit the 3 million target in 9 years by 2031.

With everything we know about Zambia, even doing it in the next 10 years would be a miracle and 15 years is more realistic. But being realistic is not exactly our strong suit since there are many other examples of these unrealistic targets such as beef and maize production.

REFERENCES
Copper production drops overall in Q1 2026 as large mines post gains
https://www.zambiamonitor.com/copper-production-drops-overall-in-q1-2026-as-large-mines-post-gains/

Zambia’s 2025 copper production up 8%, misses target
https://www.mining.com/web/zambias-2025-copper-production-up-8-misses-target/

Zambia’s Mining Sector Charts Its Course to 2031
https://www.pdu.gov.zm/blog/zambias-mining-sector-charts-its-course-to-2031

Zamstats: Zambian Copper production 1960-2023
https://www.zamstats.gov.zm/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COPPER-PRODUCTION-1960-2023MAY_-ALL-YEARS.xlsx

Minister of Mines press release
https://www.mmmd.gov.zm/?p=3792

Copper prices 1959-2026
https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data