What is the way forward in meeting growing energy demands?

Part 1 of this article presented the current energy mix and its challenges. In view of the growing demand and deficit for energy, households and industry may have to adopt an optimal mix of various sources of energy to minimize costs at both household and industry level. Long term strategies for the country must be mindful of international obligations already in force to meet the net-zero emission due to climate change. This will require the promotion of cleaner sources of energy while systematically winding down on fossil fuels. Three such sources offering great potential for Zambia, along with hydropower and coal are nuclear, geothermal and solar energy.

Nuclear energy – An earlier discussion by CTPD gave arguments on Zambia’s readiness to embrace nuclear energy. While not feasible in the short term, the country should begin preparing for its adoption in the long term. Nuclear energy is viewed as a clean, safe, reliable and relatively competitive source of energy. It is also responsible for the fastest decarbonization effort in history with major nuclear players having recorded the fastest decline in carbon intensity and experienced a clean energy transition by building nuclear reactors and hydroelectric dams (Igini, M 2023). Unfortunately, the use of nuclear energy, especially in developing countries has in the past been hindered by fear of proliferation of nuclear weapons. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency forecasts a ten-fold increase in African nuclear power generation by 2050 as the continent seeks electricity access and net-zero through small modular reactors. Zambia must accelerate its long-standing plans to invest in nuclear energy given the availability of uranium resources.

Geothermal energy: Zambia has about 80 hot springs. Currently, only 3 geothermal sites at Bweengwa River, Kapisya and Chinyunyu hot springs have been identified as potential sites. Efforts to develop these energy sites must be intensified.

Hydropower – Hydropower investments vary from moderate to high cost depending on the size of power generation. CTPD is of the view that the introduction of cost reflective tariffs and access to ZESCO transmission lines, should see increased interest in hydropower generation by IPPs. Great potential exists for mini hydro. ZESCO on its part must ensure proportionate investment in transmission capacity.

Coal – Coal use is being limited by international agreements to phase out fossil fuels. However, due to the high global demand for fossil fuels at nearly 80%, the process at global level is seen to be a very gradual process and hence giving Zambia an open window to invest in coal fired energy plants. Note that Zambia has in excess of 165 million tonnes of proven coal reserves at Maamba Collieries Mine with a mine life in excess of 275 years at its current mining rate of about 600,000 tonnes per year. However, CTDP advises that long term plans must be mindful of international agreements and emerging technologies on use of fossil fuels.

Solar energy – Great potential exists for solar energy use. Major impediment is the generally high cost of initial investment especially at household level. Efforts that will lower this cost must be intensified. Immediate future plans must be to localize the development and manufacturing of solar technologies.

Biofuel and biomass – these are proven renewable energy technologies that have significant potential of adding to the energy mix of Zambia. What has been lacking are effective promotion strategies.

Oil and Gas – Encouraging positive exploration results have been reported in oil and gas exploration. However, further investments to develop these resources have been hindered by an unsupportive fiscal. Given the renewed interest in fossil fuels due to global energy deficit, Zambia must review its oil and gas exploration and development policy to take advantage of what other countries are doing.

Conclusion

From the discussion, it is quite apparent that no one source of energy may fulfill all the energy requirements Zambia needs. Energy security in the short term will require the development of coal resources, develop mini hydro and solar. Given some of the highly positive results from its oil and gas exploration activities, government must urgently review its fiscal policy to unlock development of the sector before the zero-emission cap is fully enforced. Solar, biofuel, biomass and wind must be promoted. In the long term, nuclear and geothermal sources must be developed. For a sustainable energy sector, it important for Zambia to support R&D, develop its local technology and put in place a vibrant skills development plan.

About the Author

Dr. Stephen Kambani is a Research Associate at CTPD, with a PhD in Mineral Economics from Montana University (Austria); a Master of Engineering in Mineral Economics from McGill University, Canada and a Bachelor of Mineral Sciences from the University of Zambia.