As we prepare for the presentation of the 2025 National Budget, expectations amongst all sectors of Zambian society are high. This will be the penultimate budget of President Hichilema’s first term in office. Thus it will be crucial in consolidating what the present regime has been endeavoring to achieve since 2021. A process that began in April and which will culminate in Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane’s address to Parliament in September, the past few months have characterized by countless consultative meetings and submissions to the Ministry of Finance and National Planning. As we near its end, I speak for much of our society when I say, we await with bated breaths for the contents of that famous Copper briefcase.

The National Budget speaks to the priorities of Government in a given calendar year. Generally, it is themed on a particular policy objective. In the 2022 National Budget, for instance, Government placed its focus on the Mining Sector and Human Capital. This was the year that mineral royalty was made deductible. It was also the year that over 40,000 teachers and health workers were employed. The 2023 Budget meanwhile was largely premised on the agriculture sector with the roll out of farm blocks across the country. The 2024 Budget on the other hand provided a raft of incentives for the Manufacturing sector and operations in Multi-Facility Economic Zones. As to what will be the direction in 2025, it would be imprudent of me to foretell with certainty. Nonetheless, I hope to provide informed recommendations for what the Minister of Finance may consider.

I will begin with the Constituency Development Fund. The CDF has been quite revolutionary in as far as taking development to all corners of the country. From 2021 to 2022, there was a huge increase in allocations. Thereafter, the increases were more modest but still significant. I would recommend that Government raises CDF once more. This does not need to be as large as the increase in 2022, but something akin to the trend in the last 2 budgets. As Government does this, however, it must continue to improve disbursement modalities of the Fund. I believe in 2024, there are still projects being completed under the 2022 fund. There must be as little carry overs of CDF money from one fiscal year to the next. Continued efforts must be made to streamline approvals and reduce bureaucracy to truly actualize the development ideals of CDF.

In a similar vein, Government must continue to invest in the health and education of the Zambian citizens. More teachers should be hired as well as health workers. This must be supported by the construction of education and health infrastructure. While CDF can play its part in delivering such infrastructure and it has been in the past three years, there must also be a substantial budget line that should cater to these investments. With respect to the number of teachers, given surges in enrollment rates, Government must prioritize the hiring of additional teaching staff. The Government deserves commendations for implementing free education. Quality, nonetheless, must not be compromised. Quality can be maintained only through reducing pupil teacher ratios and construction of more classrooms.

My proposed sector of focus in 2025 takes me to the elephant in the room, the energy sector. Allow me to reiterate, the National Budget sets policy direction for a fiscal year. Throughout that year, it allows for the aligning of Public sector efforts towards goals espoused in the Medium Term Budget Plan, the 8th National Development Plan and ultimately, Vision 2030. 2024 has seen the devastation of climate change on energy production and water development. It has laid bare the inefficiencies in our energy sector, which we will need to address if we are to achieve Vision 2030. Government must therefore place special focus on the sector in 2025. More resources should be allocated to ZESCO, accompanied by urgent reforms to the utility, to enable it invest in other sources of energy such as solar power, wind and coal thermal plants. Such investments did not feature prominently in recent Budgets. A dedicated Budget line must be designated specific to the electricity sector.

In conclusion, as we approach the Budget address, it is my hope that policymakers will use the opportunity to consolidate prior interventions, vis a vis the Constituency Development Fund and Human Capital. It will also be a crucial opportunity to take steps towards ameliorating the present energy crisis, with a proposal that the energy sector feature prominently in next year’s Budget. If well capitalized the National Budget shall be a key means through which we can move closer to our goals and continue on the trajectory of economic recovery for the good of all in our society.

The Author is an Economist and Member of the Economics Association of Zambia